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You Were Nudged

Official-looking impersonation losses rise past $1 billion

Scammers posing as companies or government agencies are taking more money because fake authority now feels familiar and urgent.

▲ Rising82% confidencehorizon Dec 2026data as of 2023
Confidence-weighted forecast · history → projection
Tracking reported losses to business and government impersonation scams (millions of U.S. dollars)
2020202120222023202420252026now
ObservedProjectionshaded band = confidence cone
82%
Confidence
2026
Horizon
Jun 2026
First called
Tracking
Status
The call

The message says it is your bank, the government, tech support, or a company you know. The trick is not just lying. The trick is borrowing authority long enough to rush you.

The number to notice

Reported losses to business and government impersonation scams rose from $310 million in 2020 to $1.1 billion in 2023.

What’s driving this
  • people are trained to obey urgent warnings from banks, agencies, and big companies
  • caller ID, email names, and fake websites can make the lie feel official
  • AI lowers the cost of clean writing, voice imitation, and personalization
  • payments can move faster than victims can verify the story
Sources · check usOpen
Impersonation scams: not what they used to be ↗Federal Trade Commission · 2024-04official
For you

When someone official-sounding asks for money or private information, your job is to slow the moment down. Hang up. Find the real number yourself. Then check.

What would change our mind
Revise this call if the FTC's next comparable impersonation series falls below the 2021 level or if report volume and losses both decline for two straight years.
Behind the numbersOpen

Observed values come from the FTC data spotlight on business and government impersonation scams. The FTC reports combined losses of $310M in 2020, $673M in 2021, $961M in 2022, and $1.1B in 2023. The FTC notes these figures are based on reports directly to the FTC and that most fraud is not reported to the government. Some reports can be classified as both business and government impersonation. The projected points extend the direction but are not FTC forecasts.

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