Every public claim gets a probability, a threshold, and a date. Wins count. Losses count. Unresolved claims stay visible until the evidence arrives.
A page can sound smart and still hide from measurement. This one puts the score where you can't miss it.
Brier = mean (prior − outcome)². Lower means cleaner judgment. Calibration lights up as predictions resolve — zero is the honest starting point.
No resolved predictions yet. The first horizons arrive December 2026; the score appears the day they do, whichever way they land.
Calibration
predicted prob → realized rate
Calibration plot lights up once predictions resolve. Zero is the honest starting point.
A probability before the result is known. On the record, in public.
The exact evidence that changes the call. Written down in advance.
A date the claim has to answer to. No quiet extensions.
Brier score moves with every outcome. Lower means cleaner judgment.
The claims, priors, and thresholds were committed before the outcome window. When the seal opens, they join the same public ledger and get graded the same way.