Not a trophy case. A pulse check.
This page shows what I shipped, what I claimed, and what still needs to be proven. No jargon required. If the work is real, it should be easy to explain.
Three numbers, in plain words.
What I made, what I owe reality, and how I get scored.What I made
17 things shipped
Can I keep showing up?
17
May 2026: 4 longer pieces, 6 shorter updates, and 7 prediction cards.
See the source →What I owe reality
7 open claims
Do my confident claims survive contact with facts?
7
These are public calls still waiting for the date or evidence that will settle them.
Open the receipts →How I get scored
Prediction score
Am I getting clearer over time?
Waiting
No public prediction has finished yet. The honest score is not available.
How scoring works →Trust should feel earned, not requested.
I do not want to sound credible by posture. I want the work to leave a trail: what was published, what was predicted, and what changed when new evidence arrived.
Measured without pretending
If there is no score yet, the page says that plainly.
Useful before impressive
The reader should leave clearer, not dazzled.
Receipts over reputation
The brand is built by proof that stays visible.
The rules the dashboard answers to.
Four commitments that keep the numbers honest.Make clear claims
If I say something will happen, I write the probability and the check date.
Show the source
When a number matters, the dataset should be close enough to inspect.
Update in public
A changed mind should leave a mark, not disappear into old copy.
Stay understandable
If a normal reader cannot understand the dashboard, the dashboard failed.
The work should have a heartbeat.
Refreshed May 31, 2026 · monthlyThis chart is not here to flex volume. It is here to show whether the project is alive, consistent, and honest about quiet months.
This is still the early stage: more promises on the board than finished proof. That is fine. I would rather show the empty score honestly than pretend the track record exists before reality has had time to answer.