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The World AI Is Building

TSMC's newest chip lines keep rising toward about 80% of wafer sales

The part of TSMC's business that makes the most advanced chips rose from 41% of wafer sales in 2020 to 77% in Q2 2026.

▲ Rising84% confidencehorizon Dec 2026data as of 2026-Q2
Read the full article·The Taiwan AI Position→
Confidence-weighted forecast · history → projection
Tracking TSMC wafer revenue from 7nm-and-smaller chipmaking (%)
2020202120222023202420252026-Q22026now
ObservedProjectionshaded band = confidence cone
84%
Confidence
2026
Horizon
Jul 2026
First called
Tracking
Status
The call

When your phone, search engine, car, or AI tool gets smarter, more of that intelligence is being etched through the same tiny set of factory lines.

The number to notice

TSMC's newest chip lines went from less than half of wafer sales in 2020 to more than three quarters by Q2 2026.

What’s driving this
  • AI chip demand from data centers
  • customers moving high-end devices to newer production lines
Sources · check usOpen
TSMC 2021 Annual Report ↗TSMC · 2022reportTSMC 2022 Annual Report ↗TSMC · 2023reportTSMC 2023 Annual Report ↗TSMC · 2024reportTSMC 2024 Annual Report ↗TSMC · 2025reportTSMC 2025 Annual Report ↗TSMC · 2026reportTSMC 2026 Q2 Quarterly Results ↗TSMC · 2026-07-16report
For you

The AI in your daily life may feel like software, but its progress is tied to physical factories whose most valuable work is increasingly concentrated in Taiwan's orbit.

What would change our mind
A sharp slowdown in AI chip orders, a faster-than-expected fall in 5nm and 7nm demand before 2nm ramps, or major production delays in newer lines would weaken this call.
Behind the numbersOpen

TSMC reports wafer revenue by chipmaking generation. "7nm-and-smaller" means chips made with TSMC's 7-nanometer, 5-nanometer, 3-nanometer, 2-nanometer and related newer production lines; these are the lines used for many high-end phones, data-center processors, and AI chips. Annual report figures show 41% in 2020, 50% in 2021, 53% in 2022, 58% in 2023, 69% in 2024, and 74% in 2025. TSMC's Q2 2026 technology split shows 2nm at 3%, 3nm at 30%, 5nm at 33%, and 7nm at 11%, totaling 77%. The 2026 projection is a year-end call based on the Q2 2026 mix and the continuing ramp of newer lines; it is not company guidance. Caveat: this measures TSMC revenue mix, not global market share, and overseas TSMC fabs are growing, though the most advanced production base remains deeply tied to Taiwan.

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